Everyone we track, how likely they look, and what would change it. Close scores are grouped, not ranked; a tenth of a point between names is noise. Every act carries the facts behind its placing: when they last headlined, and the size of rooms they play now.
Most likely first-time headliner
Loading the latest run…
Our model alone
With the market
Includes bookmakers' standing board prices read on the day, and older quotes with the dates they were reported.
The full board, and where our two views disagree
Every act the betting market prices, and every act the model rates as a possible first-time headliner. Both figures for each, and where each figure actually comes from. The rest of the field is in the banded list below, where the gaps are too small to rank.
Unpriced
No two independent bookmakers price this act, so no market figure is used. The figure is the model's alone.
Priced and scored
Both views contribute. The prices behind the market half, each with its date, are listed further down this page.
Priced, not scored
The market's view of acts our model doesn't score. The figure is the market's alone. That is a decision about what the model covers, not a judgement that the act is unlikely.
Ruled out, figure withheld
The festival's organiser has publicly ruled this act out of this edition, with a date and a citation. Bookmakers may still be pricing them; we do not publish that price as a probability while the statement stands.
Excluded by rule
A standing rule of this edition's model scores this act at zero. These are editorial rules, the modeller's judgment rather than something new data forced; each states its basis and the public condition that retires it, on the act's own row and on the How It Works page.
Loading the latest run…
Our two views disagree about the third name
On the evidence alone the model picks , who no bookmaker is pricing. Blend the betting market in and the third name becomes , whom bookmakers make about a chance. We show you both rather than picking one quietly.
Where the two figures move apart
These are the acts whose two figures differ by more than a percentage point. The size and direction of each move is shown rather than smoothed away.
Returning headliners
Acts in the same band are equally plausible; inside a band the order is alphabetical because the gaps mean nothing.
Loading the latest run…
Where the betting market fits
Two figures per act: evidence alone, and evidence with the betting market folded in. How the two lines work
The market figure only moves when enough independent bookmakers price the same names. A handful of prices, or several outlets echoing one source, is a rumour with a number attached; when that is all there is, the figures stay evidence-only and this page says so.
How good the market has actually been
Checking historical odds boards against what actually got announced, the clear market favourite went on to headline about 6 times in 10. But when we can see everything a bookmaker priced that day, the eventual headliner is missing from it more often than not, in 6 of the 8 cases where we hold a complete board.
Those two readings do not deserve the same confidence. The first only counts markets a journalist wrote about at the time, which tends to be the ones the market got right. The second counts every named act on a board we know was complete, whether the market got it right or not, and it is the more trustworthy of the two.
Names priced
–
Independently priced
–
Used in the blend
–
About the betting odds in these figures
These figures combine bookmakers' own standing prices, read from their boards on the day shown, with older quotes carried by named publications on the dates they reported them. Every quote names its bookmaker and its source, and each one either carries its reported date or says plainly that it has none.
Some of the prices we hold carry no publication date we can verify. Those are standing positions read from a bookmaker's own board rather than a dated report, and they are shown as read on the day rather than given a date they do not have.
Prices we would no longer call fresh are shown with their age rather than dropped; removing them would change the figures without telling you why. The full source list, with each price's date, is on the How It Works page.
One limit on all of this. The historical comparison behind it only really tells us how reliable bookmaker odds are 3 to 6 months before a headliner is announced. Most of the prices behind today's figures were reported further out than that, so we can't yet say how well this pattern holds at that distance.
The prices behind the market figure
The acts the market prices, and how far the market and the evidence disagree. Every price behind these figures, with its date, is on the How It Works page.
Loading the latest run…
Notable absences
The biggest names missing from the board, and the specific reason for each.
Some acts carry a “with the market” percentage and no model figure. That means the market is pricing a name the evidence cannot support yet: no completed Pyramid headline set (a cancelled booking does not count), or no current activity to score. Those percentages are the betting market's alone.
Bad BunnyEvaluated, currently 0%: below the first-time-headliner threshold
His two Tottenham Hotspur Stadium shows (June 2026) are fully counted. The model rates his scale as unquestionable. What he lacks, on current data, is the UK festival-circuit footprint the model requires before rating a first-time Pyramid headline slot as bookable: the same threshold applied to every first-timer, on the same evidence. UK festival appearances or a deeper UK touring pattern would change this. BLACKPINK, Karol G and BTS sit in the same category for the same reason.
Justin BieberOn the watch-list, 0%: no announced upcoming tour dates
He has returned to performing since cancelling the Justice tour in 2022: 12 shows in the past two years, most recently in July 2026, including SoFi Stadium and MetLife Stadium. What the model has no record of is a single announced future date: nothing is currently on sale anywhere, so there is no forward touring signal to score. An announced UK/EU tour, or a new release paired with announced touring, moves him onto the scored board automatically.
RosalíaNot on the board: no Glastonbury pathway on current evidence
Her LUX world tour is real and large: 40 shows across 12 countries in the past two years, including two O2 Arena nights in London (May 2026), all counted in the model's data. She has no Glastonbury appearance history at any level, and arena-scale touring alone doesn't clear the model's evidence bar for a first-time Pyramid headline slot. A UK festival-circuit presence or UK stadium-scale headline shows would change her position.
Acts that have left the board
These were on a recently published board and are no longer in the scored output at all. They stay listed here for a while so that their absence is visible rather than silent.
Preview: showing , not today's date. Set or remove the otd query parameter to change it.
A record of announcements that have already happened, not a prediction of what comes next.
On this day in Glastonbury announcement historyGlastonbury announcement history
Every announcement in the record, in calendar order. Open the cycle below to see when the festival usually says what.
Licence
Glastonbury 2003
Michael Eavis lodged an appeal after the council's regulatory board voted to refuse a licence for the following summer's festival.
Organisers lodged the entertainments licence application for the following summer, to be considered by the regulatory board before the end of the year.
Oasis and Muse were reported among the headline acts, days before tickets went on sale. The same report named a third act who did not in the end top the bill, so it is recorded here only for the two that did.
Tickets went on sale at 8pm by telephone and through the festival website, priced at 112 pounds, with credit cards barred and a limit of two per person after the previous year's problems.
The festival's own history records that final confirmation of the band's first Glastonbury booking came through on this day, during a phone call witnessed by a BBC Today programme presenter.
Mendip District Council granted a new ten year licence running to 2024, holding the public ticket allocation at its existing level while allowing more staff on site.
Foo Fighters withdrew from the Friday headline slot after Dave Grohl broke his leg falling from a stage in Gothenburg, forcing the band to call off their remaining European dates.
Coldplay were announced as the first confirmed headliner, taking the Sunday night and becoming the first act to top the bill at the festival four times.
Muse were confirmed to headline the Friday, their third Pyramid Stage headline booking and the one that made them the first act to top the bill on all three nights.
Michael and Emily Eavis announced that the fiftieth anniversary edition was cancelled because of the coronavirus pandemic, making it an enforced fallow year, with deposits rolling over to the following year.
Michael and Emily Eavis announced that the edition would not take place, a second consecutive enforced fallow year, with deposits again rolling forward.
The licensing sub-committee granted a premises licence for a scaled down two day event at Worthy Farm that September, capped at just under 50,000 people and with no camping.
A batch of resale tickets went at 9am and was exhausted in a little over twenty minutes, the edition having already been fully allocated through deposits rolled over from the cancelled years.
Elton John was confirmed as the Sunday night Pyramid Stage headliner, months ahead of the rest of the lineup, for what was billed as the final UK show of his farewell tour.
General admission tickets were exhausted that morning. Reports of how long it took differ between thirty two and thirty five minutes, and we have not been able to settle which is right.
Neil Young said publicly that he would not play the festival, objecting to its broadcast arrangements. He had not at that point been announced on the lineup.
The festival named the days it will run in 2027, from the Wednesday to the Sunday of the last week of June, and offered the first pairs of tickets through a charity prize draw.